e-spaces


Strength at the bottom
September 19, 2008, 8:01 am
Filed under: Local Company News, Opinion/Analysis

While the net worth of thousands of wealthy Americans and Europeans plunged further this week, including many swallows about to follow the sun to their homes in the Cape, not everyone is hurt by the consequences of the bursting of the US housing bubble.

In locations far from both Wall Street and Clifton, such as Nqutu in Zululand and the Orange Farm squatter settlement in Gauteng, residents are continuing to spend on upgrading their homes, according to the results of building materials retailer Cashbuild. While middle- and upper-income South Africans have cut back on spending on their homes, it is nothing like in the US.

But the bottom end of the market is doing more than surviving: it continues to show signs of buoyancy. The results of retailers Shoprite and Massmart – and presumably unlisted Pep, too – continue to bear this out. The mass market, while stung by inflation, is less indebted and consequently resilient to high interest rates. The timing of the infrastructure boom must have played a key role too: many in this segment are now holding down their first jobs, even if they may not be permanent.

While finance minister Trevor Manuel can’t be given credit for the timing, a prudent financial approach has given the government the ability to spend now. Had the government overspent in its early days, as the trade unions demanded, we would now be suffering.

Two other factors have played in South Africa’s favour. The first is pure luck: the introduction of the stricter lending criteria of the National Credit Act a year ago. Without this law, house prices would have carried on rising unsustainably. A second factor is that the local banking system gives less freedom to borrow against capital reserves, avoiding some of the risky investments that happened in the land of unrestrained capitalism. While we are hardly immune, government and private sector prudence have given us some protection. It is a model that should be retained by ANC president Jacob Zuma and the captains of finance.


No Comments Yet so far
Leave a comment



Leave a comment
Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <pre> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>