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South Africa’s 2.6 million “black diamonds” are likely to grow to 22 million in the next 20 years, according to Mzamo Masito, a University of Cape Town (UCT) lecturer in marketing.

By Ethel Hazelhurst

Johannesburg – South Africa’s 2.6 million “black diamonds” are likely to grow to 22 million in the next 20 years, according to Mzamo Masito, a University of Cape Town (UCT) lecturer in marketing.

Masito said yesterday at a conference in Johannesburg organised by the Association of Corporate Treasurers of SA, that given the relative fertility rates of black and white women, the spending power of the black middle class would soon outstrip that of whites.

While there is zero growth in the white population because of emigration and a low fertility rate, black families still average three children.

The black middle class has spending power worth R180 billion a year, excluding access to credit. This is 28 percent of South Africa’s total spending power. Total black spending power is R335 billion, compared with total white spending power of R235 billion.

Research by the UCT Unilever Institute shows that 47 percent of the black middle class live in the suburbs, as opposed to townships. The rest live in townships because of social and cultural bonds.

Of those in the suburbs, 63 percent visit friends and family in the townships each month.

The buying power of those in the suburbs tripled between 2005, when the institute first interviewed black middle-class families, and last year, while the buying power of township families fell about 15 percent.

Last year the institute interviewed 4 700 people in the black middle class in seven metro areas across the country.

They earn an average of R6 100 a month, compared with an average of R6 000 for the total white population.

But the black middle class is defined not so much by income as in terms of a combination of other factors, including occupation, education, access to credit, assets and aspirations.

Masito said that with nearly 20 million black South Africans still excluded from the middle class, the divide between South Africans would continue.

But he said that in the future, this divide would be based on class and income rather than on race.