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May 24, 2007By Ethel HazelhurstJohannesburg – Firms that cater to households are gaining from a dramatic shift in living patterns – and can expect to do so in future.

Research from the University of South Africa’s Bureau of Market Research (BMR) shows that while the population is growing, household sizes are shrinking. The spin-off for banks and retailers is that families need more accommodation per person – a trend that should ensure escalating demand for housing, appliances and furnishings.

The BMR reports that between 1996 and 2005, the population increased by 12 percent to 47 million. However, the average household size declined from 4.5 people to 3.7.

As a result, the number of households rose nearly 40 percent to an estimated 12.7 million in 2005.

The BMR predicts total population growth of 8 percent to 51.5 million between 2007 and 2021. But it expects growth in households of 32 percent to 17.4 million.

This is in line with a global trend towards smaller households, which has been fuelling a housing boom in many economies.

Over the period from 2001 to 2021, the BMR expects that the black population will grow the fastest, at 15.4 percent. Asian and coloured population groups will grow about 10 percent, while the white population will decline by more than 8 percent due to emigration and historically low fertility rates.

The BMR identifies HIV/Aids as a “demographic dynamic” common to black, white and coloured groups. But among Asians the level of Aids is low, the BMR says.

It expects household growth to be stronger than population growth among all groups between 2001 and 2021. Among black people it is projected at 63 percent, among Asian people 30 percent, coloured people 27 percent and white people 4.3 percent.

“The stronger household growth can be explained by a greater number of single-person households, a growing number of nuclear family households and an ageing component of the population characterised by empty nests,” the BMR says.

A breakdown by province shows average annual population growth in the period between 2001 and 2021 of 1 percent in only the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, while average annual growth in Gauteng is projected at 0.5 percent and in the Western Cape at 0.6 percent.

Household growth between 2001 and 2021 is strongest at an average annual 2.7 percent in Limpopo, 2.6 percent in the Eastern Cape, 2.3 percent in the North West and 2.2 percent in Mpumalanga.

A factor in provincial population figures was boundary changes implemented in December 2005. As a result, North West lost 475 000 people, while the Northern Cape gained 180 000.

This has vital implications, as the distribution of funds from the government takes into account the number of people living in a province.